Demand Forecasting
A forecast without an error measure is an opinion. We build forecasts that report their own accuracy, so planning decisions can be made with the uncertainty in view.
What this covers
Baseline model
History, seasonality and trend, measured rather than assumed.
Drivers
Promotions, weather, calendar — whatever demonstrably moves your demand.
Accuracy reporting
Error tracked by product and period, published.
Scenario planning
What a change in assumption does to the plan.
Exception review
Where the forecast and the plan disagree materially.
Hand-off to planning
Numbers delivered into the system that acts on them.
Who this is for
Retail and ecommerce
Availability against working capital.
Manufacturing
Production planning and raw material commitment.
Distribution
Stock positioning across locations.
Services
Staffing against predicted volume.
How we work
People who have done it before
Teams that have worked in this setting, not a generic squad reading the brief for the first time.
One team, start to finish
The people who design it are the people who build it and the people who answer for it afterwards.
Working software early
Something running in weeks, so the direction is judged against a real thing rather than a document.
Bought once, owned by you
What you keep at the end
The code, the documentation and the accounts are yours throughout. Nothing here depends on us staying, and any arrangement that continues does so because it is worth continuing.
Talk to us
What we promise
- A named team you can reach, not an account manager relaying questions
- A working version early, and every fortnight after that
- Written estimates with the assumptions and the risks stated
- Your code, your data and your accounts, yours throughout
- A direct answer when something is late or will not work
How it runs
Scope
What the solution has to do, what it must integrate with, and what is deliberately out.
Pilot
A working configuration with one team or one process, measured against how it works today.
Roll out
Extended in stages, each with a way back if it does not hold.
Improve
Measured after launch and changed on evidence, which is when most of the value arrives.
Common questions
That depends on your data and your demand, and any specific number offered before seeing both is invented. We measure a baseline first.
Sales history at the level you plan, ideally two years, plus the events you already know moved it.
No. It gives planners a defensible starting number and time to work on exceptions.
As often as decisions are made — usually weekly, sometimes daily.
Would this work here?
A short conversation is usually enough to tell whether this fits your situation. If it does not, we will say so.
Get in touch