Forecasts and classifiers you can act on

Predictive models for demand, churn, risk and pricing — with the honest error bars and the baseline they had to beat.

A forecast without an error range is a guess

A forecast without an error range is a guess with a decimal point. The useful question is not "what will demand be" but "how wrong might this be, and what does that cost me".

We build models that answer both, evaluated against how well your current method does — which for demand planning is often a seasonal average that is harder to beat than people expect. When we beat it we can say by how much; when we do not, you have saved the build cost.

Who this is for

If one of these sounds like your situation, it is worth a conversation.

Stock too high and too low

Capital tied up in the wrong lines while the right ones run out.

Churn noticed after it happens

You know who left. Knowing who is about to is worth considerably more.

Pricing set by habit

Cost-plus or matching a competitor, with no view of what the market would bear.

How we keep it honest

The difference between a model that helps and one that quietly misleads.

A baseline before a model

We measure how well the current process does first. Surprisingly often it is the thing to beat, and sometimes it wins.

Evaluated on data it has never seen

Held-out, time-split where time matters. An accuracy figure from the training set is not a result.

A human in the loop where it counts

Confident cases go through; uncertain ones go to a person. That boundary is set by you, not by us.

Monitored after launch

Data drifts, behaviour changes, accuracy decays. You get the alerting, not just the model.

Part of AI & Data

Part of AI & Data

AI that survives contact with your data

Machine learning, generative AI, automation and analytics — applied to problems where the numbers justify it, and measured after launch.

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What we commit to

What we commit to

  • A written recommendation not to proceed, where that is the honest answer
  • Accuracy reported on held-out data, with the failure cases shown
  • Your data stays yours — never used to train anything we sell elsewhere
  • A documented fallback for when the model is unavailable or unsure
  • Running costs estimated before you commit, not discovered on the first bill
How an AI project runs

How an AI project runs

Deliberately front-loaded with the question of whether to proceed at all.

Feasibility

We look at your actual data, establish the baseline, and give you a straight answer on whether this is worth building. Some of these end in "do not".

Prototype

A working model measured against the baseline on held-out data, with the error cases in front of you rather than averaged away.

Production

Integration into the system where the decision is actually made, with the human-review boundary, logging and rollback in place.

Monitoring

Drift detection, periodic re-evaluation, and retraining when the numbers say so rather than on a calendar.

Common questions

Usually two years of reasonably clean history for anything seasonal. We assess this before promising a result — insufficient data is a common and honest reason not to proceed.

Reported as a range rather than a single number, and measured against how well your current method does. A forecast without an error range is a guess with a decimal point.

Data drifts and accuracy decays. Retraining is triggered by measured drift rather than a calendar, and you get the alerting rather than just the model.

Is this the right fit?

Tell us what you are trying to do. If machine learning is not the answer, we will say so.

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